These categories are expected to see fewer than one million occupational shifts by 2030. Declines in food services, customer service and sales, office support, and production work could account for almost ten million (more than 84 percent) of the 12 million occupational shifts expected by 2030.īy contrast, occupations in business and legal professions, management, healthcare, transportation, and STEM were resilient during the pandemic and are poised for continued growth. These include customer-facing roles affected by the shift to e-commerce and office support roles that could be eliminated either by automation or by fewer people coming into physical offices. Occupations that took a hit during the downturn are likely to continue shrinking over time. We do not forecast how aggregated employment may be affected by the business cycle in the short term instead, we focus on how these forces may reshape the composition of labor demand over the long term.Īcross a majority of occupations (employing 75 percent of the workforce), the pandemic accelerated trends that could persist through the end of the decade. They generally fall into three categories: automation, including generative AI an injection of federal investment into infrastructure and the net-zero transition and long-term structural trends such as aging, continuing investment in technology, and the growth of e-commerce and remote work. Multiple forces are set to fuel growth in certain occupations and erode jobs in others. 2 The future of work after COVID-19, McKinsey Global Institute, February 2021. The total number of transitions through 2030 could be 25 percent higher than we projected a little over two years ago. We expect an additional 12 million occupational shifts by 2030. Some 8.6 million occupational shifts took place from 2019 through 2022. More recently, the accelerated development of generative AI, with its advanced natural language capabilities, has extended the possibilities for automation to a much wider set of occupations.Īmid this disruption, workers changed jobs at a remarkable pace-and a subset made bigger leaps and moved into entirely different occupations (Exhibit 1). The nature of work has changed as many workers have stuck with remote or hybrid models and employers have sped up their adoption of automation technologies. Since then, the US job market has come roaring back from its sudden drop. 1 The future of work in America: People and places, today and tomorrow, McKinsey Global Institute, July 2019. Months after MGI released its last report on the future of work in America, the world found itself battling a global pandemic. The US labor market is going through a rapid evolution in the way people work and the work people do. Employers will need to hire for skills and competencies rather than credentials, recruit from overlooked populations (such as rural workers and people with disabilities), and deliver training that keeps pace with their evolving needs. The United States will need workforce development on a far larger scale as well as more expansive hiring approaches from employers.Women are 1.5 times more likely to need to move into new occupations than men. Workers in lower-wage jobs are up to 14 times more likely to need to change occupations than those in highest-wage positions, and most will need additional skills to do so successfully. As people leave shrinking occupations, the economy could reweight toward higher-wage jobs. An additional 12 million occupational transitions may be needed by 2030.We also see increased demand for healthcare workers as the population ages, plus gains in transportation services due to e-commerce. Infrastructure projects will increase demand in construction, which is already short almost 400,000 workers today. The net-zero transition will shift employment away from oil, gas, and automotive manufacturing and into green industries for a modest net gain in employment. Federal investment to address climate and infrastructure, as well as structural shifts, will also alter labor demand.Office support, customer service, and food service employment could continue to decline. Automation’s biggest effects are likely to hit other job categories. However, we see generative AI enhancing the way STEM, creative, and business and legal professionals work rather than eliminating a significant number of jobs outright.
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